My response to the op is the same as I've said elsewhere.
Across infinite time the probability becomes 100%. Time is your measurement of the probability, and time (assuming it's real and not a human construct to measure existence) goes on forever into the future. Even if the components of life hadn't all mixed properly in 30 billion years it'd have just happened some other point in existence, that's assuming the 30 billion estimate is accurate.
the eventual spark of life isn't a question of what if, its only a matter of where and when. Across eternity 1 in 10^158 or whatever becomes 100% assured.